Nation

IIE DIGITAL DESK : Chandigarh/New Delhi, June 23, 2025 — The two politically pivotal by‑elections held today in Punjab and Kerala, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has taken a commanding lead in Ludhiana West, while the Indian National Congress is ahead in the Nilambur seat—affirming shifting political landscapes at the regional level.

In Punjab’s Ludhiana West by‑election, held on June 19 following the tragic demise of sitting AAP MLA Gurpreet Bassi Gogi in January, AAP candidate Rajya Sabha MP Sanjeev Arora has established a strong lead. According to the latest round‑seven count, Arora is ahead by approximately 3,272 votes, having secured 17,358 votes, compared to Congress's Bharat Bhushan Ashu at 14,086. BJP’s Jiwan Gupta trails with about 11,839, while Shiromani Akali Dal’s Parupkar Singh Ghuman holds fourth place with 3,705 votes.

The by‑poll was critical: with voter turnout dipping to just 51.33%—significantly lower than the 64% recorded in the 2022 Assembly election—it tested AAP’s grassroots appeal in urban Ludhiana.AAP leaders warn the BJP and Congress of a potential “collusive opposition” aimed at undermining their momentum, accusations underscored by AAP’s charge of internal dissent and alleged conspiracies within rival parties .

For AAP, retaining Ludhiana West is not just about holding urban turf—it’s a symbolic affirmation of their governance record and developmental narrative. Arvind Kejriwal’s party now positions itself as a formidable urban counterpoint to both national and regional rivals ahead of 2027 polls.

Across the country in Kerala’s Nilambur constituency, the by‑election—called after the resignation of PV Anvar, who later joined TMC—has favored Congress. UDF candidate Aryadan Shoukath has built a solid lead of around 5,448 votes with 35,831 votes, compared to LDF’s CPI(M) nominee M. Swaraj’s 30,383, according to early Election Commission figures .

While an independent political presence remains in the mix—PV Anvar reportedly finishing third—Congress is projecting the victory as a bellwether for its resurgence ahead of Kerala’s 2026 Assembly elections . KPCC President Sunny Joseph indicated confidence in Shoukath’s performance, citing a predicted margin of 12,000 to 15,000 votes .

Nilambur, with a voter turnout of approximately 75–76%, stands out as a vital rural-urban tapestry seat. Analysts suggest the result signals potential momentum for the UDF ahead of next year’s Kerala election .

These by‑poll outcomes reflect contrasting political moods in two key states. In Punjab, AAP is consolidating its grip over urban centres through governance-focused campaigning, while Congress and BJP vie for relevance. In Kerala, Congress’s performance in Nilambur may herald revival against the Left-backed ruling alliance, signaling early electoral tremors ahead of 2026 .

Political commentators view today’s trends as a litmus test: in Punjab, for urban support and AAP's consolidation; in Kerala, for Congress’s appeal in rural-forest frontiers. With counting continuing in five constituencies nationwide—including seats in Gujarat and West Bengal—these two battles are already shaping emerging narratives for India’s regional political maps .

Today’s by‑elections signal a strong show for AAP in Punjab’s Ludhiana West and affirm Congress’s revival in Kerala’s Nilambur seat. Their outcomes could influence strategy and morale across party lines during the run‑up to 2026 state Assembly and national elections.